Retail Energy Analytics
FORECASTING & SCHEDULING
The Scoville platform provides accurate short term hourly forecasts and long term usage estimates based upon the exact composition of your retail portfolio.
- We calibrate the response of your historical zonal load data to profile-based estimates to generate forecasts that adapt dynamically to your changing customer base.
- Short-term forecasts are run multiple times daily to capitalize on the latest weather data.
- Historical usage by meter is aggregated and calibrated to preliminary hourly zonal loads ensuring accuracy and rapidly detecting changes in utility methodology.
- Up-to-date representation of your portfolio with automated detection and upload of new trades via FTP or AWS and customer data from EDI vendors.
- Automated delivery of forecasted net quantities to each ISO and to your credit supplier.
Scoville has developed the technology to provide high-precision valuation and monitoring of retail energy businesses. Our analytics platform, which is deployed at the individual meter and trade level, supports effective pricing and hedging and innovative commercial diagnostics. Our offering includes:
- Risk Analysis & Hedging: Forecasted usage and optimal hedges at daily and monthly time-scales by delivery bucket (peak, weekend peak, nights) and zone using current market prices and weather data.
- Short Term Load Forecasts: Forecasted hourly usage at each delivery zone over a 15-day horizon based upon current portfolio composition.
- Data Integrity & Activity Reports: Exception reports flagging meters with missing or inconsistent information as well as unusually high or low margin on a daily basis.
- Cash Flow Forecasts: Simulated distributions for the life of the portfolio inclusive of billing cycle effects and settlement rules at the ISOs, utilities and dealers.
- Meter-Level Analysis: Included detailed revenue, costs and margin breakouts.
- Commercial Diagnostics: Fine structure “by-meter” analysis supports a battery of unique and informative views of business performance.
- Trends in profitability and activity of marketing efforts by region.
- Identification of high and low margin customers and regions.
- Rapid detection of pricing inconsistencies.
- Customer Behavioral Statistics: Estimates of customer demographics including cluster analysis of customer usage patterns and churn.
- Daily Pricing Grids: Break-even pricing grids by utility/profile and term for standard and client-specific contract types using current forward.
Scoville’s retail pricing model produces retail transaction pricing grids across a broad swath of utilities on a daily basis.
- Current forward prices and up-to-date non-energy cost components.
- By-profile analysis to provide accurate consumption forecasts and pricing.
- Customizable for client-specific requirements, allowing flexibility in term, pass-through attributes and margin.
Retail energy portfolios are among the most complex in commodities trading. Accurate valuation is a daunting task due to the size of the data sets, the complexity of the risks, and a high level of model risk arising from forecasts of future usage. The Scoville platform has a substantial track record, having been deployed for many book and enterprise valuations on behalf of commercial banks, dealers and owners. Scoville has developed the technology to establish accurate valuation for retail energy portfolios of any size. We provide:
- A codified framework to represent retail contracts.
- A battery of tests to ensure accurate data integrity.
- Live forward prices and up-to-date cost databases.
- Present value of load and hedge portfolios.
- Detailed break-out of energy and non-energy costs.
- Transparent results in a flexible reporting format.